Currency update 28 February 2008

Currency update from strongest to weakest (click on all charts to enlarge).


Australian dollar daily and weekly charts:



Daily chart is very strong. Since the bottom in mid-Jan @ 85.76 this one has been on a tear. It closed yesterday @ 93.90; right near it's previous high of 93.92. A closing price above 93.92 would put in play Fib projection targets of:

-99.10
-102.32
-107.40

Note that this bullish breakout has yet to be achieved (unlike the Euro; see next). Will watch this one closely. Short term bullish.

Weekly chart is also very stong. May 2006 was the bullish long term buy signal and it will remain so until the MACD again crosses below zero. There is a well defined uptrending channel and a steeper trendline (black) which should act as support on any pullbacks.

Long term bullish.


Euro daily and weekly charts:

Daily chart is very bullish. New all time highs on break above 149.12. Fib targets for this move now:

-152.83
-155.07
-158.78

Support on any pullback should now be the previous resistance level @ 148.97-149.12. This level was tested 3 times before the breakout so it is a strong level of support on any pullback.

Weekly chart very bullish. Well defined uptrend from 2001 bottom.

Interesting to note my Fib projections done many months ago (these were put on the chart in mid-2007 when the price broke above it's previous all time high @ 135.62). The initial target of 146.98 has already been surpassed. Next levels are:

-154.29
-165.62

As the 154.29 projection is very close to the newly calculated Fib targets on the daily chart, it is reasonable to assume the next target for the Euro is the 154.29-155.07 level.

Nice rising trendline should act as support on any pullbacks.


British Pound daily and weekly charts:

Daily chart neutral. While there is a short term buy signal on the chart, it has yet to move above resistance @ 199.43.

If this level clears it would need to get above the confluence of moving averages (100 day moving average @ 201.42, 200 day moving average @ 201.16) to turn bullish. Still needs to prove itself at this point.

Weekly chart is bearish. The MACD cross below zero in Dec 2007 marked the bearish turnaround.

Projected Fib levels of support are noted on the chart. It broke through the first Fib support level of 195.66 which closely matches a previous price support of 195.47. This price level has to be watched closely; a break below will take it down to the 50% Fib @ 190.88