Currency update 14 March 2010

Currency update as of March 14, 2010 close.


USD 10 year monthly:



The USD went long term bullish at the end of Feb.

It is currently at long term resistance at 80.39. A monthly close above this level and the previous high at 89.62 would be the new target.

The monthly chart remains bullish.


USD 3 year weekly:



The USD weekly chart went bullish in early Dec, 2009. Price has found resistance at the 80.39 level (as mentioned above) + the 38.2% Fibonacci level @ 80.11. This would be a normal area to consolidate recent gains before a further push upwards.

All indicators remain bullish. A weekly close above the resistance level would be very bullish but has yet to be achieved.

The weekly chart remains bullish.


USD 6 month daily:



The daily USD chart shows the well defined uptrend line that was broken on Friday, 12 Mar. The short term technical indicators turned bearish the previous day.

Key short term support is at 79.51. The 50 day moving average is currently at 79.23 with the 200 day moving average at 78.04. A break of the 200 dma along with the support line at 78.33 would be a very bearish development.

The daily chart is currently bearish.


Euro 10 year monthly:



The Euro went long term bearish in Jan when price closed below the 12 month simple moving average.


Euro 3 year weekly:



The Euro weekly chart went bearish the 1st week of Dec, 2009.

All indicators remain bearish with resistance at 138.82 and support at 134.


Euro 6 month daily:



Short term indicators on the Euro went bullish Wed, Mar 03. Short term remains bullish and appears to be ready to challenge the downtrend line established from the Dec, 2009 top.

Short term the Euro is bullish.


British Pound 10 year monthly:



The monthly British pound chart turned bearish at the end of Feb. Key support remains at 142.


British Pound 3 year weekly:



The weekly British pound chart turned bearish the 1st week of Dec, 2009. It remains bearish.


British Pound 6 month daily:



The short term chart of the Pound turned bearish in late Jan. It remains so and is one of the weakest currencies I monitor.

It has found support at 148.84 and must hold this level. In the last 2 trading days it has had a "pop" but this week will determine whether it switches back to short term bullish. For now, it remains bearish.


Australian Dollar 10 year monthly:



The monthly chart of the Australian dollar turned bullish in May, 2009. It remains bullish.


Australian Dollar 3 year weekly:



The weekly Australian dollar chart turned bearish the last week of Jan, 2010 but has abruptly reversed and turned bullish as of 05 Mar.

It could best be described as being in a trading range until the previous high at 94.06 is taken out. If it were to do so, it would be a very bullish development.


Australian Dollar 6 month daily:



The daily Australian dollar chart went bullish on 16 Feb and continues to remain bullish.

A nicely formed uptrend channel has been formed and it appears to want to test the previous daily high close at 93.24. This level has been tested 3 times this year and each attempt has failed. A close above this level would be very bullish.


Canadian Dollar 10 year monthly:



The monthly Canadian dollar chart turned bullish in May, 2009.


Canadian Dollar 3 year weekly:



The weekly Canadian dollar chart (like the Australian dollar) turned bearish in late Jan but then has put in an abrupt turnaround. It switched to bullish the last week of Feb and has broken the resistance level at 96.68 + the important weekly close resistance going back to 2008 (red line). The next target is the 102 level.

The Canadian dollar is the strongest currency I monitor.


Canadian Dollar 6 month daily:



The daily chart shows a clear view of the breakout on Friday above resistance at 97.79. This should now act as support unless this was a false breakout; this weeks market action will verify this.

The daily CDW remains very bullish but getting quite extended/overbought. It needs to consolidate at this level.



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