ECAM Investment Strategy

Over the past several months a number of new subscribers have joined the ECAM community.  In addition, I have had numerous emails from current subscribers who have queried the methodology I use to invest in my Provident Fund.

In an effort to update information to new subscribers (as well as refresh the memories of long time subscribers) I would like to go over my overall investment thesis on how to best utilize the Provident Fund (or any pension fund scheme for those subscribers who are not Emirates employees).

Normally I do not delve into excessive discussions on economic theory but due to the importance of the current economic phase we are within I feel it is important to provide some basic theory to allow you to understand the investment environment we are dealing with when factoring our investment decisions.


Cyclical Overview:

In a Capitalist economic system there are various cycles that tend to occur on a recurring basis.  Most are familiar with the shorter-term periods of expansion and contraction that define a typical "business cycle" but most are not familiar with a much longer-term cycle associated with the "debt cycle".

I have written about his longer term cycle previously so will not dwell upon it again (for further information Google "Kondratieff Cycle" or "Debt Super Cycle" for an overview).  While various writers will attempt to take credit for having discovered this cycle, it is the work of Nikolai Kondratieff that 1st identified this cycle as being pervasive in Capitalism (for which he was eventually imprisoned and executed).

Broadly speaking, Capitalist economies go through periods of expansion associated with the accumulation of debt within the system.  However, at some point the debt becomes so overwhelming that it severely compromises the integrity and functionality of Capitalism.  This accumulation of debt eventually results in the requirement for a "debt reset" whereby excess debt is expunged from the system.

Kondratieff referred to the various phases of expansion and decline in terms of seasons:  Spring-Summer-Fall-Winter.  The Winter phase is the one whereby debt is "reset" by way of a period of deflation/depression.  We are currently in the Winter phase.

Historically the Winter period lasts 15-20 years.  Within this deflationary period, there still can be economic advances associated with the normal business cycle, but the over-riding "gravitational pull" of the debt deflation results in substandard rates of economic expansion during economic advances and amplified rates of decline during economic declines.


Current Cycle:

There are various opinions on when the current Debt Deflation/Winter cycle began.  It is my thesis the Kondratieff Winter began in 2000 at the height of the Dot Com boom.  It is clear to me the speculative excesses within our Capitalist system reached its apogee in 2000 and it is only due to the irresponsible interference conducted by Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan of the U.S. Federal Reserve that the economic reset we were required to undergo was postponed by his inflation of the housing bubble in the U.S.  As such, a "natural" debt cycle top was extended/prolonged into 2007 by way of his exceedingly low interest rate policy and the lax lending standards adopted in the U.S. from 2000-2006, leading to the housing boom.

Others believe the current cycle began in late 2007 with the end of the Housing boom and the decline in Europe.  While I do not believe the argument has merit, should this ultimately have been the "debt top" it only puts forth the recovery period further into our future.

Assuming the cycle top began in 2000, theoretically based upon history we should expect 15-20 years of deflationary decline (taking us to 2015-2020).

As mentioned previous, regardless of the current "Winter Season" which could last to 2020, we will still experience our normal Capitalist business cycle.  As such, we still go through periods of expansion and periods of recession.  However, due to "debt gravity" reset experienced during the "Winter Season" the expansions are substandard (going counter-trend to the overall debt deflation) and the recessions are accentuated (going with the trend of overall debt deflation).


Secular vs. Cyclical Stock Markets:

Stock Market advances/declines tend to follow the cyclical business cycle and longer term economic cycles.  As such, it is important to identify where we are at in the shorter term market cycle (Cyclical) as well as the longer term market cycle (Secular).

My thesis is we entered a long term SECULAR bear market in 2000 in line with the Kondratieff Winter.  As such, the overwhelming trend is one of a bear market decline until 2015-2020.  However, within that secular bear market, we can experience counter-trend periods of market advance known as CYCLICAL bull markets.  The periods 2003-2007 and 2009-Present are such periods.  They are periods whereby stock markets advance counter to the overriding negative market influences present.

Just as described previous, cyclical bull market advances (within a secular bear market) tend to be substandard whereas cyclical bear market declines (within a secular bear market) tend to be violent and excessive.

Given the above, obviously it is easy to understand why I have been prudent and careful with my Provident Fund during the current "cyclical" bull market advance within the "secular" bear market decline.


Pension Fund Investments:

Of all the methods to invest, pension funds tend to be the most difficult.  Generally most pension funds (of which the EK fund is included) tend to offer limited investment vehicles, limited switching options and excessive time delays to change investment positions.  As such, they are a poor conduit in which to invest capital given the other options available to investors.  Unfortunately for many (including Emirates employees) they are a mandated part of the employment contract we are required to participate within.  As such, we are essentially left to attempt to manage a substandard investment option.

Given the above, my strategy for investing within the pension fund is as follows:

1)  NEVER USE THE "C" ACCOUNT (Additional Voluntary Contributions) if you have the option to invest in alternative investments yourself or with a good advisor who can provide you a quality service at a a reasonable rate (more on that below).

2)  Always use a fully invested equity position as your "default position" unless there is a reason to do so otherwise.  Over time only equities offer the capital appreciation required to exceed the pace of inflation.

3)  As per (2), only have a full equity position when the market environment is conducive to allowing such an aggressive position.  The period up to 2000 allowed such positioning given the overall cycle we were within; the current cycle precludes such a position except in exceptional circumstances.

Given my above "rules", this is the methodology I utilize to invest within my contractually required pension fund:


A)  Ongoing Monthly Required Contributions (A + B)

-100% of my ongoing mandated monthly contributions are invested 100% into equities irrespective of current cycles, market valuations or technical indicators.  These allocations NEVER change.

This approach is commonly known as "dollar cost averaging".  Given on a daily/weekly/monthly basis one never knows exactly when a market is over/under valued relative to it's short term fundamentals, this approach allows you to purchase equal small equity portions irrespective of current market conditions.

During market declines you are purchasing larger blocks of shares monthly due to the market being "on sale"; during market advances you will purchase lesser numbers of shares as the market has advanced.  However, given the overall propensity for markets to advance approximately 70-75% of the time, a systematic investment approach such as this allows you to accumulate shares at below trend prices during short term declines.


B)  Strategic Equity Positions:

-the overall allocation I place in equity balances is dependent upon current cycles, market technicals and valuations.

When the market is "cheap" and appears to be entering a new uptrend (with me sitting in cash with excessive market pessimism) I want to be aggressive adding to equity positions.  When the market is "expensive" and appears to be entering a new downtrend (with me being almost fully invested and excessive market optimism) I want to be aggressively selling my equity positions and moving to cash.

This "strategic" market allocation involves moving large percentages of my portfolio into either equities or cash dependent upon the preceding explanation.  This in no way changes my monthly contribution strategy described in (A) above.


Investment Advisors

I have been extensively involved in investment for well over 30 years.  In that time I have seen the best and the worst in "Investment Advisors".  I hope to provide a little insight into the "industry".

Most investment advisors you will speak with are nothing more than commissioned sales people with limited investment experience.  The industry is built upon a sales force who push a fund/ a commodity/ a platform/ a system/ for which, in exchange, they receive a direct commission.  In my experience I have found more than 90%+ have limited knowledge of the underlying economic conditions or market conditions they profess to deal within while attempting to sell their product or services.  They are told to sell the product; they try to sell you the product.  Nothing more/nothing less.  Their livelihood is based upon what they can sell; not what they will deliver.

It is understood the average investor has limited time (given their "day job"), interest (to most these subjects could be perceived as extremely "dry") or ability (sometimes these subjects can be extremely complex).  As such, the industry has evolved over the past 50 years to offer unlimited amounts of poor advice and guidance.

In trying to use the services of an investment advisor there are many considerations but here are some tips that might help:


1)  Cold calls/Cold emails: (non-solicited phone calls/emails from advisory firms you have not contacted directly for information):

AVOID/AVOID/AVOID.  These are what we refer to in the industry as "boiler room" operations which purchase your telephone number/email address from a third party supplier and go after you as a "client".  You are a mark; they are salesman/women.  There is no "investment advice" in anything they offer.  Run away/hang up.


2)  Investment/Relative Return Advisors:

It depends upon the structure of the firm you are dealing with.  Most tend to be "investment advisory services" who will attempt to sell you a fund(s) for which they receive a commission.  Some have some form of in-house "market overview" service to back up their sales push into specific funds based upon some form of fundamental and/or technical analysis.

There is nothing inherently wrong with this sort of company as they are attempting to provide you the best fund they believe you should be in (based upon their analysis).  However, be aware the "best fund(s) they believe you should be in" will at times also align with their "best sales commission to keep the client in these funds" strategy.

A common feature of these types of advisors is they only receive a commission as long as you are invested in their funds.  As such, while they will give you the appearance of looking out for your best interests, they will have a vested interest in keeping you within those funds irrespective of current (or potential future) market conditions.  They will never advise you go be in cash as they do not collect a commission when you are in cash.

They are referred to in the industry as "Relative Return" managers.  They will set a benchmark (for example the S&P 500 index) and they will design a portfolio to attempt to at least match the performance of the benchmark (and hopefully outperform the benchmark).  For this they will expect a ongoing monthly fee.

This is all great and under the terms of "Relative Performance" should the benchmark return {+X%} and your portfolio return {+X + y%} your manager will point to his/her outperformance to justify his/her fee.  However, if the benchmark returns {-X%} and your portfolio returns {-X + y%} your manager will still point to his/her outperformance to justify his/her fee.

Example:

-Yearly benchmark return:  +10%
-Portfolio return:  +11%
*Portfolio outperformance:  +1%

-Yearly benchmark return:  -20%

-Portfolio return:  -19%

*Portfolio outperformance:  +1%

In the 1st instance, the portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 1% and you made 11%.  In the 2nd instance, the portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 1% but you LOST 19%.

The relative performance manager would call this a "success" as he outperformed his benchmark (and expect to receive his fee accordingly) but you still lost 19%!

3)  Absolute Return Managers:

An Absolute Return manager is one whereby the only thing that counts is "money in the bank".  They will charge you a base rate (which covers their administration, trading and professional fees) and an additional incentive fee for "absolute performance".  This performance is not measured against a benchmark; it is literally "money in the bank" based upon the excess return they made for your account.

This type of manager is typically a hedge fund with a typical fee of 2% annually for ongoing research, trading, administration costs and 20% of the excess "absolute performance" they put into your account.

Normally this type of fund is only available to "Accredited Investors" defined as:

1. an individual whose net worth, or joint net worth with the person's spouse, exceeds $2 million at the time of the purchase, or has assets under management of $1 million excluding the value of their primary residence;
2. a person with income exceeding $200,000 in each of the two most recent years or joint income with a spouse exceeding $300,000 for those years and a reasonable expectation of the same income level in the current year.

As you can see, this is a fairly limited "club" who can normally participate in this sort of investment manager.

If you find an investment advisor that delivers consistent returns at an industry standard fee over time "absolute return" performance should outperform "relative return" performance.

Bottom Line:

-the current market environment is the most challenging in 60 years

-we are in for an additional 10+ years of poor market performance

-pension fund systematic monthly contributions over time return the best overall returns

-strategic movements into cash preserve investment capital during market declines

-be smart when selecting an investment advisor

[edit]

Stockmarket Update 07 October 2012

From my last update 18 September 2012:

Overall Picture:

My take on the proceedings the past 3 weeks is the investment picture is much clearer. It appears obvious both Europe and the U.S. (maybe China soon to follow) are getting more and more desperate by what is unfolding (recessions, unemployment, GDP declines) and feel it is necessary to step in with some MAJOR programs.

Given the amount of liquidity the world will soon be flooded with in the next few months by Central Banks worldwide, risk assets will be bid up higher and higher (equities, precious metals, commodities). Along with this there is a natural presidential cycle whereby the U.S. equity markets generally do well in the Oct-Dec period during a presidential election along with the normal seasonal rise in the same period.

Put it all together and it looks like we go higher from here ........ following consolidation as I will discuss below.

Bottom Line:

Given the above my outlook has changed from neutral to positive. However, the daily charts are overbought so I will increase my equity exposure on any short term pullbacks.

I expect to move to a 100% equity exposure in 2 tranches. I will commit an additional 25% (taking me to a 75% equity exposure) on the 1st significant pullback and commit the additional 25% to subsequent pullbacks.

The 1st pullback appears to have begun yesterday. I expect they will be short and shallow so may not allow for optimal entry but that is the way it is. I will post additional purchases as they occur.

The overall picture since my last update has remained essentially unchanged.  We are in an unprecedented period in history where Central Banks worldwide have determined unlimited printing of fiat currency is the only "solution" to the current economic crisis we face.

We are in uncharted waters dealing with this economic crisis.  It is obvious policy makers are grappling with proposed solutions based upon "models" and "studies" which have never been tried nor tested in the history of economics and capitalism.  Whether their vision as to how best to end this malaise is correct or not, it is important to understand this sort of manipulation puts undue stress and uncertainty into investment decisions.

I normally do not delve into economics/monetary policy in my writing as my emphasis has mostly been on investing (and most subscribers do not really have an interest in such subjects).  However, I feel it is important to pass along to you some of my thoughts that keep me awake at night.

Firstly, it must be understood that modern day economies operate based upon the actions of two entities:

Governments:

Who are responsible for the FISCAL policies in any given country (revenue and spending) to allow the particular government to run a "responsible" budget and still provide services to the citizens within that country.

Central Banks: 

Who are responsible for the MONETARY policies in any given country (interest rates, money printing) to allow for price stability and employment to the citizens within that country.


When I look from a "top-down" view at where we are at currently, it is clear it is governments worldwide who have not performed their fiduciary role.  As a consequence, we are now in a period where central banks have been put in positions whereby they must compensate not only for their own mandates, but must also attempt to compensate for the mandates neglected by their respective governments.

Historically this tends to occur once every 80'ish years in Capitalist history whereby we experience a deflationary depression brought about by excessive FISCAL (Government) spending.  The result is ALWAYS a period of 15-20 years where governments attempt to deal with excess public debt they have accumulated due to their irresponsible behaviour (historically through massive attempts at creating inflationary pressures to counteract the deflationary forces; or alternately, war).

Currently we are in a position where Central Banks are doing what they can (within their individual mandates) to keep this whole thing afloat.  There is only so far you can go on the Monetary side of the balance sheet (we are there now with the current zero interest rate policies in most countries and various quantitative easing programs having been introduced) before we hit a wall.  At that point Fiscal policy (government) must do something to fix their side of the house.  That would require drastic cuts in spending (unpalatable to a politician as it is virtually impossible to get re-elected in a democracy unless you promise the "sheep" only good; no one is willing to vote in a politician who is responsible and knows the only way forward is cuts to government programs).  The only other alternative (which has worked in the past) is a war.  War generates industrial production and does a wonderful job on focusing the electorate away from the "balance sheet" economics produced by the irresponsible behavior of government and onto a common "US vs. THEM" patriotic group think.

It is obvious the western world (U.S. and Western Europe) have lived well beyond their means for the past 50 years.  It is obvious the politicians we elect to represent our "best interest" have done little to do so in a responsible manner.  As such, we are in for a very long and painful period over the next decade for which I believe the majority of the population are ill prepared financially.  Most are looking behind at the "good times" and think those days will return again soon.  I truly believe we are in for a far more painful future given how little has been done by governments/politicians to address the current problems we face.  We blame central banks but they are only the glue trying to keep this whole mess from falling apart.  Their influence is almost at an end and now it is governments turn to act.  Will their response be responsible deficit reduction, cuts to social services and a decade of economic depression (which is required to deflate the current debt and would ultimately provide the "reset" to allow our Capitalist system to begin anew) or is it war (far easier to "sell" to the sheep and still allow the politicians to get re-elected while achieving the same economic end result)?  If I was a betting man I know where my money would be going.

While living in the present; never take your eye off where we are headed in the future.  The past .......... forget about it.  That was your parents/your parents-parents "great times" party.  You are faced with a much more difficult economic future going forward.

Having said the above, I turn now to the present to update the current market environment.



CLICK ON ALL CHARTS TO ENLARGE


ACWI DAILY:

The daily chart of ACWI continues to be bullish.  The expected decline I discussed in my last blog post did occur but the level of pullback was much more shallow than expected.  My expectation would have been for price to test the previous support at 46.29 but instead price has current rebounded off the lower trend line of the steep price channel (shown in blue). 

It is interesting to note the RSI (2) printed its first sub-5 reading since May and has not been able to print (as of Fridays close) a print greater than 95 on this current advance.  This must be construed as a market that is weakening and therefore I would expect prices to again begin to decline as early as Monday.

The key level to watch will be another retest of the lower trendline.  Should this break I would look for price to decline to the previously mentioned support at 46.26, which should align pretty closely with the lower red channel line currently sitting near 46.00.  In addition, a pullback would tend to flatten the 50 day moving average (currently at 46.15) and provide further support in the same price region.  A pullback to this level would be my 1st target to increase my equity exposure.


ACWI WEEKLY

The weekly ACWI chart remains bullish with all technical indicators in alignment.

I have drawn the thin level of resistance we are currently experiencing (shown in yellow) along with the price channel discussed above.  In addition, I have drawn a larger price channel formed by the lows in Oct, 2011.

Should a substantial correction begin it could be expected price would target the previous strong support level (shown by the wide yellow area at 44.17-45.02).  A drop to this level would still keep the larger uptrend channel in place and would be a good area to add additional equity exposure.


ACWI MONTHLY

The monthly ACWI chart remains bullish with all technical indicators in alignment.

Price broke above both the 8 and 10 month simple moving averages in Aug.  Price action in Sep broke the downtrend line as well as resistance at 46.60.  Ideally on any short term pullback price inter-month would break below the 46.60 support level (as discussed previous on the daily/weekly charts) but at the end of the month price would have regained a close > 46.60 (a reminder the validity of the monthly charts is only assessed once the month has been completed).

Ideally we would like to see new highs achieved in ACWI (a monthly close > 49.15).  Currently that is the price target and until a monthly close above that level (which would turn the 49.15 resistance into monthly support) it still is too early to say we are 100% in the clear as far as world equity markets are concerned.


ACWI PNF

The longer term traditional Point and Figure chart remains bullish.

This chart turned bullish on a price print of 45.0 and has a Bullish Price Objective (based upon the structure of the chart) of 64.0.


ACWI PNF (.10 BOX)

The shorter term .10 box Point and Figure chart is currently bullish on a price print of 47.4 with a preliminary Bullish Price Objective (based upon the structure of the chart) of 49.7.

A reminder for those new to technical analysis the Price Objectives calculated on PnF charts are used only as "guides" to assess the risk/reward of entering a trade and must never be used as specific targets.


EURO DAILY

The daily chart of the Euro (which I still believe is "ground zero" for any problems we may encounter over the near term) remains bullish with all technical indicators in alignment.

A very interesting price pattern has formed on the Euro in the past 2 weeks.  It is known as a "Bull Flag" pattern (which is essentially a tight falling price channel counter-directional to the overall uptrend currently in place).  This pattern broke to the upside 02 Oct through the upper trend line (and after having successfully tested and having held the 200 day simple moving average several days prior).  Based upon the rules of construction for such a pattern, a price target now in place is 139.59 (for those interested, this is determined by taking the height of the "staff" or "flag pole" from 120.42-131.72 = 11.3 points and adding this to the low of the "flag" prior to its breakout; 128.29 + 11.30 = 139.59).  Once again, a pattern does not mean 100% certainty the price objective will be achieved (Bull Flags have a success rate of 64%) but it does give you an idea of risk/reward and trend.

Should the target be met this would result in a further 7% rise in the Euro and subsequently a similar rise in equity markets.


EURO WEEKLY

The weekly Euro chart remains bullish with all technical indicators in alignment.

While the Euro has had a stellar rise over the past few months, I still believe caution is advised.  A break above the downtrend channel line and the strong area of resistance (shown in yellow at 133.29-134.54) would be a very bullish development for both the Euro and equities (in fact, all risk assets except the USD).  The previously discussed bull flag target would certainly reduce the risk that this Euro pop is for real and not a head fake.


EURO MONTHLY

At the end of Sep price was stalled right at the 8 month simple moving average (and also right at the 10 month simple moving average; not shown on this chart).  The technical indicators are turning but by the end of Oct we would need to see a monthly close above both the 8 and 10 month SMA to indicate the long term trend is up.  As such, currently the long term trend is neutral.


VIX:SPX RATIO

In the course of my work I spend a lot of time looking at "non-conventional" proprietary charts I have developed over the years to assess the underlying strength and risk/reward in markets.

The ideal time to invest additional capital in equities is when there is a high level of fear in the markets. Conversely, when there is a high degree of complacency in the markets it is a good time to be defensive and mindful that the bottom could drop out at any moment.

A good indicator I have used for years is a ratio of the VIX (S & P 500 Volatility Index) to the SPX (S & P 500 Index). The VIX is basically a representation of the markets expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 days. It is calculated based upon a weighted blend of prices for a range of options on the S& P 500 Index.

A VIX reading of 15 would indicate the market believes the S & P 500 Index will trade in a range of 15% annualized (looking forward 1 year) over the next 30 days (inferring that index options are expected to move +/- 4.33% over the next 30 days).

Common Math:

VIX 10: Expected Index movement over the next 30 days +/- 2.87%
VIX 15: Expected Index movement over the next 30 days +/-4.33%
VIX 20: Expected Index movement over the next 30 days +/- 5.77%
VIX 30: Expected Index movement over the next 30 days +/- 8.66%

The VIX is used by hedge funds, mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds as a gauge of the current "mood" in the markets. Technically a high VIX indicates the market believes there is significant risk the market will move sharply in one direction (either up or down) but in general a high VIX is normally associated with high market movement uncertainty (therefore it is normally viewed as a "fear" gauge). A low VIX indicates the market believes there will be neither significant upside nor downside moves over the next 30 days.

The key take away is the VIX is useful but often misunderstood. I like to use it in a ratio to the SPX to give me an idea as to when the "mood of the market" might be changing.

 As can be seen on the above chart, over the past 10 years 2 significant areas have defined the VIX:SPX ratio.  Prior to Aug 2007 the ratio stayed in an area defined by the lower pink band.  Since 2007 the upper pink band has defined all areas of "comfort" on the ratio.

Right now the VIX:SPX ratio is right at the same level since 2007 that marked every significant market top.  It has remained within this band for the past month and has yet to reverse to the upside.  A move upwards would be one of the 1st indications we are in for a market correction.

On my chart I use a 20 vs. 200 day moving average crossover to define the transition between "all is well" to "Houston, we have a problem".  Currently we have not crossed over ("all is well") but with the strong downward slope of the 200 dma it would not take too much "concern" in the markets to move this to an equity sell signal rapidly.

As of today we are ok but the market does seem a bit too complacent given its current expectations.  Nothing to worry about (yet) but keeping this one on my radar.

Bottom Line

The markets remain bullish on all time frames (short, medium, long term).  The overbought selling I expected in my last post occurred but was not of the magnitude I expected.

I have not showed these charts before but I use them as a possible "roadmap" for monthly stock market price action.  Each months chart looks back to 1990-Present to chart the average change by trading day within the given month.

As can be seen on the chart, the interpretation of what an "average" October should look like based upon the past 21 years of data is the month should be flat-to-slightly up for the 1st week or so (the 1st data point is the last trading day from the previous month) followed by a decline into trading day 7 (call it Wed or Thur of this coming week).  After that we should be on a nice rise into trading day 15 with some chop back and forth into the end of the month.

I caution you not to use these as a "crystal ball" as doing so will deplete your account very quick.  However, they are useful from a "general market overview" of how the given month has cyclically performed in the past.  Just another tool to add to the investment toolbox.

I am looking for a place to increase my equity exposure (as discussed in the past blog) to 75%.  The forthcoming market weakness I expect combined with my support levels discussed above give me a good indication as to when I might be able to get back in and at what price.  I will be watching closely mid-week for a possible entry and will blog accordingly.

As of today I remain in a 50% Equity/50% USD Cash position as I indicated in my last post:

-Russell Global 90 Fund: 40%

-Fidelity International Fund: 10%

-Russell USD Liquidity II Fund: 50%


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