ECAM Blog Website Update:
As we end
2013 I thought it appropriate to provide an ECAM update. This update will discuss the blog site and a
following blog post will discuss current market conditions as we end the year.
As most of
you are aware, I have not provided a routine ECAM update since the end of August. To quote Mark Twain, “The reports of my death
have been greatly exaggerated”.
The
primary reason for my lack of posting is because overall equity market conditions
have not changed significantly since my last update. In addition I have been quite involved with
several entities in developing new investment strategies and this process has
taken up a considerable amount of my time.
Rest assured I continue to monitor the markets daily and if/when there
is a notable change in trend I will not hesitate to provide an immediate update
on the current ECAM blog site.
As many are
aware, I started the ECAM site in 2006 to provide some general “informational” guidance
to Emirates pilots to assist in their Provident Fund investing. Over the past 7 years the number of
subscribers has exceeded 1000 (not only pilots but also family/friends of
individuals as well as several investment institutions) strictly through “word-of-mouth”.
As one of
my primary investment tools utilizes market technical analysis, the blog has
had a heavy emphasis on “technical” investment strategies over the years. However, over the past few months I have
begun to reassess the value and content of the blog. In discussion with numerous readers, it has
become apparent much of the technical content is beyond the knowledge level and
interest of the majority of readers.
Given this is the case, I have been pondering how best to serve the
readers going forward.
I am acutely
aware that readers of the blog generally fall into 3 categories:
1) those who have a keen understanding
of investment strategies and utilize the blog as a supplement to their own
strategies,
2) those who have a basic understanding
of investment strategies but do not feel comfortable enough to make investment decisions
without some sort of “back-up” analysis, and
3) those who have neither the
background, experience nor interest in learning about investment strategies and
would prefer to be guided through investment analysis/decisions.
Of the 3
types, I would estimate the number of site users in each category is as
follows:
- Category 1 = 5%
- Category 2 = 30%
- Category 3 = 65%
Given such,
I feel it is time to update ECAM to provide maximum benefit to the 95% who
require additional investment information.
I feel one
of the great failings of Emirates Airlines is its general “corporate disinterest”
in providing provident fund members with the tools necessary to plan for their
retirement. I believe this observation
is extremely poignant given the companies “defined contribution” Provident
scheme is potentially the only investment plan many members will utilize for
their retirement.
While the
Provident Fund unto itself will not provide adequate capital to retire on, a
combination of maximizing returns in the Provident Fund A/B accounts combined
with a solid investment plan utilizing other investment vehicles should result
in the majority of members retiring comfortably in a reasonable period of time. Unfortunately most members are lost when it
comes to tackling this difficult task and my fear is there will be a vast
number who leave Emirates without having fulfilled the potential to maximize
their investment gains for retirement.
To attempt
to fill this void, I am in the process of developing a new dedicated website. While I will still provide insight into
market conditions through the new site, I hope to expand the information to
provide much greater insight into the subjects of wealth management and
retirement strategies.
The site is
expected to provide the following tools to allow members to self-evaluate and
plan their retirement:
- Individual member risk
profiling to allow members to select suitable portfolio composition based
upon their unique “life” circumstances (and to change their profiles as
their life circumstances change over time).
- Sample portfolios constructed
by ECAM in accordance with varied risk profiles to assist members in
choosing the portfolio most appropriate to their individual life
circumstances.
- Ongoing analysis of current
market conditions by ECAM to adjust sample portfolios in line with current
market trend conditions.
- Tools to allow members to
assess their current “glide path” towards their retirement goals.
- Linked websites to additional
retirement information, saving and investment strategies, tools and
analysis.
In addition,
one of the most frequent questions I am asked is how I invest my own money
outside the compulsory Emirates A/B accounts.
In short, I employ a unique investment strategy that has provided
exceptional returns with impressive compound annual growth rates.
The
strategy is employed in 3 unique portfolios (returns are cumulative gross
returns without brokerage commissions and slippage):
- A low volatility bond-only
portfolio (total cumulative return 2011-2013: +48.8% with 6.6% volatility).
This type of portfolio is ideal for risk-averse individuals who
desire near-equity returns with very low volatility and is suitable as a
core investment strategy.
- A moderate volatility mixed-asset
class portfolio (total cumulative return 2011-2013: +116.5% with 16.2% volatility). This is the portfolio I use for my own assets
as it combines moderate volatility with high returns. Also suitable as a core investment strategy.
- A high volatility maximum yield
portfolio (total cumulative return 2011-2013: +366.8% with 26.4% volatility). This portfolio is ideal for those who
desire exceptional risk-adjusted returns and can tolerate higher volatility
and draw downs. Also suitable as
part of the “satellite” of a “core-satellite” investment strategy.
I expect to
be able to offer an opportunity to participate in these types of investment
strategies at some point in the future given the huge number of readers who
have expressed an interest in participating in such strategies. As ECAM is not licensed in the UAE to act as
an investment advisor, it is expected this type of investment vehicle would
take the form of some sort of log-on service onto the new website whereby
individuals would be required to action their own trades within their own individual
brokerage accounts.*
In summary,
my goal is to go beyond my initial remit of equity market analysis on the
current blog site to provide the necessary “missing link” that currently exists
between the limited information provided by the Emirates Provident Scheme and
its members. I hope to be able to offer a
large increase in timely investment information and the necessary tools to
enable members to maximize both their A/B account investments as well as other investment
avenues. More will be forthcoming in
2014 on this subject as the website is developed and introduced.
To everyone
who has accepted ECAM as an informational service to assist them in their investments,
thank you once again for your continued support. I wish you and your families a very Happy
Holidays and look forward to taking you and your investments forward in 2014
with a new sense of vigor and direction.
Warm Regards
Dwayne
Malone
*ECAM has not sought nor is licensed to act as an investment advisory service in the UAE. As such, any
services offered through ECAM will be strictly “educational and informational”
in nature at present and any individual who utilize the content presented by
ECAM will be deemed to have accepted full responsibility for its content and usage.
